Laurent Pauwels

Photo of Laurent Pauwels

PhD Graduate Institute Geneva
Senior Lecturer

Rm 4090
H70 - Abercrombie Building
The University of Sydney
NSW 2006 Australia

Telephone +61 2 9114 0752
Fax +61 2 9351 6409
laurent.pauwels@sydney.edu.au

Bio

Laurent Pauwels received his Ph.D. in International Economics jointly from the Graduate Institute and the University of Geneva. His main areas of research include structural change in time series and panels, estimation and inference in discrete choice models, forecast combinations, economic crises and networks. His interests also include monetary policy and exchange rate issues in China and other economies. During his doctoral studies, Laurent held positions at the European Central Bank (ECB) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). Before joining the University of Sydney, he worked as an economist in the research department of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) conducting research and monitoring both economies of China and Hong Kong.

Research Interests:

Structural change in time series/panels, discrete choice models, forecast combinations, economic crises, networks and monetary policy in China.

Selected publications

2018

Journal Article

Chan F, and Pauwels L (2018) Some theoretical results on forecast combinations International Journal of Forecasting, 34 (1), 64-74. [More Information]

2017

Journal Article

Pauwels L, and Vasnev A (2017) Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions Empirical Economics, 52 (1), 229-254. [More Information]

2016

Journal Articles

Matsypura D, and Pauwels L (2016) Does portfolio margining make borrowing more attractive? International Review of Financial Analysis, 43, 128-134. [More Information]

Pauwels L, and Vasnev A (2016) A note on the estimation of optimal weights for density forecast combinations International Journal of Forecasting, 32 (2), 391-397. [More Information]

2015

Conference Proceeding

Chan F, and Pauwels L (2015) Is it optimal to combine forecast with a simple average? MODSIM2015 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation; Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc (MSSANZ), Broadbeach.

2014

Journal Article

Pauwels L, and Vasnev A (2014) Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 28, 138-148. [More Information]

2013

Journal Articles

Chan F, Pauwels L, and Wongsosaputro J (2013) The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 93, 175-189. [More Information]

Vasnev A, Skirtun M, and Pauwels L (2013) Forecasting Monetary Policy Decisions in Australia: A Forecast Combinations Approach Journal of Forecasting, 32 (2), 151-166. [More Information]

2012

Journal Articles

Liu L, and Pauwels L (2012) Do external political pressures affect the Renminbi exchange rate? Journal of International Money and Finance, 31 (6), 1800-1818. [More Information]

Pauwels L, Chan F, and Mancini Griffoli T (2012) Testing for Structural Change in Heterogeneous Panels with an Application to the Euro's Trade Effect Journal of Time Series Econometrics, 4 (2), 1-33. [More Information]

Working Papers

Pauwels L, and Vasnev A (2012) Forecasting the U.S. Business Cycle A Discrete Choice Approach with Real-Time Data and Forecast Combination.

Vasnev A, and Pauwels L (2012) Practical Use of the Optimal Weights in Density Forecast Combinations.

2011

Journal Article

Chan F, and Pauwels L (2011) Model specification in panel data unit root tests with an unknown break Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 81 (7), 1299-1309. [More Information]

Conference Proceedings

Pauwels L, and Vasnev A (2011) Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2011); Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc (MSSANZ), Perth.

Wongsosaputro J, Pauwels L, and Chan F (2011) Testing for structural breaks in discrete choice models 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2011); Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc (MSSANZ), Perth.

Working Papers

Liu L, and Pauwels L (2011) Do External Political Pressures Affect the Renminbi Exchange Rate?.

Pauwels L, and Vasnev A (2011) Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions.

2008

Journal Articles

He D, and Pauwels L (2008) What prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model China and World Economy, 16 (6), 1-21. [More Information]

Hoti S, McAleer M, and Pauwels L (2008) Multivariate volatility in environmental finance Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 78 (2/3), 189-199. [More Information]

Working Paper

Pauwels L, Chan F, and Mancini T (2008) Stability Tests for Heterogeneous Panel Data.

2007

Journal Article

Hoti S, McAleer M, and Pauwels L (2007) Measuring Risk in Environmental Finance Journal of Economic Surveys, 21 (5), 970-998. [More Information]

2006

Working Paper

Pauwels L, and Mancini T (2006) Did the Euro Affect Trade? Answers from End-of-Sample Instability Tests.

2005

Journal Articles

Genberg H, and Pauwels L (2005) Wage-Price Dynamics and Deflation in Hong Kong Pacific Economic Review, 10 (2), 191-216. [More Information]

Genberg H, and Pauwels L (2005) An Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong Pacific Economic Review, 10 (2), 261-277. [More Information]

Hoti S, McAleer M, and Pauwels L (2005) Modelling Environmental Risk Environmental Modelling and Software, 20 (10), 1289-1298. [More Information]

Recent Units Taught

  • BUSS1020 Quantitative Business Analysis

  • BUSS4303 Business Analytics Honours B

  • QBUS5001 Quantitative Methods for Business